How will Hispanics vote in 2008?

Like everyone else, Hispanics are troubled by a down spiraling economy in 2008. And most likely, the economic platforms of McCain or Obama will decide the elections as Hispanics are much more concerned about their financial security than they are about border security.

To predict the outcome of Hispanic voters, it is essential to examine their current economic conditions, and the perspective positions as a result of each candidate’s economic platforms.

“Although all U.S. households are hurt in the economic slowdown, Hispanic and African-American households are more vulnerable; they are likely to suffer first and to suffer more” (Logan and Westrich, 2008) [1]. The economic crisis has taken a severe toll on all Americans, but it has hurt minorities at a harsher level; this hurt will likely result in what is predicted to be the greatest Hispanic turnout in the history of the United States, making for a even more potent and essential Hispanic vote that will be controlled by economic issues.

In 2006, Hispanics already suffered a substantial income gap in comparisons to whites, who have an average family income at a rate of 1.4 times of the Hispanic family average. Furthermore, “the relatively lower-paying jobs Latinos tend to hold typically don't offer health insurance, further endangering their tenuous grasp on economic survival. Added to this, the vast majority of jobs held by Latinos are in construction and service industries, among the first and worst hit in the current economic crisis” [2]. The devastating effect of the economy and the presence of much needed healthcare will be a huge factor in the Hispanic vote that should primarily favor Obama.

Obama’s advantage in tax cuts for lower income families and healthcare plans will be a big plus for Hispanic voters due to the fact that 34.1% of Hispanics were not covered by healthcare and the Hispanic poverty rate of 20.6% in 2006. The Obama tax and healthcare plans greatly favor voters in such an economic situation. Most noticeably, the Obama tax plan will decrease the amount of taxes that the average Hispanic family pays by more than triple that of the McCain tax plan. Also, Obama will give $1000 tax refund to working families, another advantage he caries over Obama when it comes to minorities and the poorer families across America. Thus, by tax breaks alone, it seems that it would be most logical that Hispanics generally vote in the way of Obama.

However, Obama’s argument is even more compelling through his more lenient and applicable (to Hispanics) healthcare plan. Obama’s plan provides subsidies that increase with lower incomes, mandates insurance for children, penalizes employers who fail to provide insurance, and promotes private healthcare. All of Obama’s healthcare policies favor the Hispanic initiative to gain healthcare. For the 34.1% of Hispanics who do not have healthcare and the 1000’s of others who are struggling to keep theirs, Obama’s healthcare initiative will be huge in garnering their votes.

Thus, Barack Obama should find him self in a solid lead among Latino voters come November 4th. He carries an edge in almost every association with Latino constituents, and most importantly, he represents their financial interests. Therefore, it is very unlikely that we will see Bush high numbers achieved by McCain in 2008.





Further Reading:

[1] http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2008/04/minorities_economy.html

[2] http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Winning-Latino-Vote-McCains-Blunder/story.aspx?guid=%7B4A323034-4ABE-4BF5-B72F-D7DF2B4DBCBA%7D

[3] http://www.biztimes.com/news/2008/10/3/which-one-has-the-best-economic-plan