Did McCain ever have a chance with Hispanic voters?

With the trouble of today’s economy which is greatly blamed on the Bush’s Republican administration, McCain was greatly tainted by the financial and economic troubles brought on by the past 8 years of Republican policy. Following the most beneficial presidency and prosperous 8 years for our country in the postwar era, did the contrast between the Republican screw up and the Democratic success ever really give McCain a chance to win the Hispanic vote?

In a 14% leap over Kerry four years ago, Barack Obama achieved an astounding 67% of the Hispanic vote. On the other hand, competitor John McCain saw a 13% drop in his support from the Hispanic community as he only garnered 31% of the Hispanic vote, a number that greatly hurt him in the southwestern swing states. Furthermore, in a race where Hispanic turnout increased by 25% from 2004, the loss of so much of the Hispanic vote was colossal and very detrimental to John McCain.

Over the past 8 years, all minorities, especially Hispanics, have seen a tremendous decrease in about every economic category. “Hispanics’ median family income declined by an average of 0.5 percent per year from 2000 to 2006, after rising an average of 1.5 percent per year in the 1990s.” [1] This resulted in an average income increase of $33,394 to $38,834 in the 1990’s for Hispanic families, and a decline from $38,834 to $37,781. Thus, by examining income alone, it is no surprise that many Hispanic voters returned to vote for the Democratic Party.

In addition, by comparing both the healthcare and poverty rates of the Democratic 90s and the past 8 years under Republican rule, there is more evidence for the Hispanic shift back to the Democratic Party. “In 1990, 25.0 percent of Hispanics were living in poverty, but by 2000, this number dropped to 19.2 percent, an average decrease of 0.7 percent per year.” [1] However, by 2006 the poverty rate for Hispanics increased from 19.2 percent to 20.6 percent. Thus, it is obvious that many Hispanics would be nostalgic for a financially benign Democratic regime.

To further this point, “Between 1990 and 2000, the number of employed Hispanics grew on average by an impressive 4.7 percent each year.” [1] However, this rate decreased by about a quarter as it declined to 3.7% in 2007. This disappointing statistic simply adds to list of reasons for many Hispanics to shift back to the Democratic Party.

Like the anti-Republican sentiment that Latino voters carry against McCain simply because of associations with anti-immigration Republicans like Tom Tancredo, it is likely to assume that many Latino constituents shifted back to the Democratic Party because of negative associations with Republican Party financially. In an election where economic policy was at the forefront, the powerful nostalgic sentiment for the robust Democratic economy of the 90s did not help McCain in his quest to win over Hispanic voters. Thus, it is no surprise that “for the first time, Latino voters emerged as a mobilized Democratic voting bloc in states across the country.” [2]

Further Reading:

[1]http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2008/04/minorities_economy.html

[2]http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9C06E0DC1638F934A35752C1A96E9C8B63&scp=1&sq=hispanics+in+economy&st=nyt